By Roger F. Gay
Is it still called “disruptive climate change”? I'm no longer trying to keep up with changing preferences in terminology. Cow dung by any other name still stinks. Let's encapsulate the new, nEW, NEW!!! global warming “science” argument and see why realists are losing.
If you've been reading lately, you'll know that all the little global warming Nazi dictators have been through PR psychotherapy and are suddenly the most reasonable people on the planet; except that they still keep telling us, quite contrary to real-world observation, that there's incontrovertible evidence that human activity is going to make Earth uninhabitable if we don't enrich the Political Class much more than in the past.
There is now a broad acknowledgment among warmers that there is a great deal of uncertainty in predicting climate change. I'm going to give away the punch line before I explain. This isn't a scientific journal and I don't want anyone to have difficulty with this. That warmers face a “great deal of uncertainty in predicting climate change” means that they can't predict climate change. That's the real underlying scientific fact. They never could.
So, let's just say we want to keep up the momentum of the PR campaign, but now based on the fact that we must acknowledge that we don't have a clue. How does uncertainty help, you might ask?
Let's say that 100 years from now, the average temperature could be the same as it is now. It could also be as much as 5 degrees lower or 5 degrees higher. No reason to think it will reach either of these extremes, but let's just say that's how uncertain we think (or just say) we are. OK then; how about 2 degrees higher? That fits within the range of uncertainty. So, let's just call that a fair guess.
The real trick is that reality-based scientists have long-since admitted that it is not possible to predict temperature 100 years in advance. So – warmers are still on partially safe ground, in a way. Nobody can prove them wrong. Could be 2 degrees higher. Nobody knows. So, they feel that no one is capable of ending this totally (scientifically) meaningless debate once and for all by
proving that the temperature won't be 2 degrees higher in 100 years.
Have we seen this sort of tactic used before? Of course we have. In the article
Are Americans Paying Taxes to Organized Crime Syndicates?, I discussed parallels between the global warming scam and the “deadbeat dad” scam of the 1990s.
Back then, the federal government wanted to take over family law, transforming it into a money machine for the Political Class. They set up businesses that provide no real services and pay billions in public funds into them every year. Setting up the scam involved arbitrary increases in the amount of child support ordered, which could then be claimed as “owed” and eventually “collected,” which strengthened the argument for reform (with big numbers) and increased the amount of public money paid to the fake “collection” businesses (based on a percent of “collections” - also known in realist language as “payments”.)
The “scientists” (economists mostly) who are involved in the industry established their own “scientific consensus” about the amount of child support that could reasonably be ordered. They were also uncertain. Family spending data was used to statistically estimate the cost of raising children. The data and type of analysis agreed upon, as an industry standard, did not, and could not yield any real result. Just making up numbers and pretending to do it scientifically was, just as in consensus “climate science”, the only government funded game in town. They made their claim for a higher “estimated cost of raising children.” “Skeptics” lined up to challenge the claim, unfortunately choosing to take the same technical approach. That led to courts being allowed to choose between scientifically baseless guesses by different experts.
A federal court eventually acknowledged that the cost estimates do not have a sound scientific basis; but then rigged the decision, allowing them to remain in force, by granting government the power to choose arbitrarily. (As opposed to rational case-by-case decisions.
P.O.P.S. v Gardner: this is also the case that redefined marriage, making it legally no longer a sacred, private institution – for the sake of granting government the power to choose arbitrarily.) The burden was on “skeptics” to prove concretely that their choices were completely wrong. The unfortunate consequence that so many had chosen to repeat their technical approach meant that they could no more prove anything than the industry could. The government won by default.
And this is where the global warming debate sits today. Courts are being asked to decide between a false scientific argument, making ridiculous claims about future weather and claiming the government should have more arbitrary power to deal with it even though they can't, and realists who have no more proof about what the temperature will be in the distant future than the industry insiders. The game is rigged of course, and the government is winning by default.
There are lessons that can be learned from the experience of the child support scam. The first one should be obvious from what's been said already. The only point in repeating the technical analysis performed by the scammers is to show that it is not real science – to show that it is meaningless.
The true motives of the scammers must be revealed. Global warming litigation today isn't about the weather. It's about corruption. This may seem like a difficult step to take against the most reasonable people on the planet. But, without it, the government can claim it's merely making a reasonable policy choice. Courts will then be asked to choose between the opinions of different experts, nothing more. And the warmers do after all, have that “scientific consensus” (that they bought with your money).
The harm that global warming policy will cause must weigh in with extreme importance. This is a much more difficult case than most people probably imagine. Don't be fooled by the fact that it's the Political Class that wants to change the status quo on something as ridiculous as climate policy. The game is rigged. Arbitrary government power and control
is the status quo. We're talking about something on the scale of
Brown v. Board of Education. A very heavy burden will always be thrown upon the realists to
prove their case. Plaintiffs not ready to bear that burden will be assured of loss before arguments are heard.